Pause and Take Stock

These words resonate with a quiet urgency, a call to step back from the relentless pace of organizational life and look with clarity at where we stand. Now, perhaps more than ever, nonprofit organizations and mission-driven enterprises are being asked to rethink not just what they do, but how they plan to sustain their work. The financial environment is shifting; constraints and opportunities are evolving in real time. And while I love to take stock broadly in strategy planning… in a crisis, you need to start with your finances. And that means scenario budget planning that is led by your development intel.

“Chasing the Money” Isn’t Always Wrong

Traditionally, many organizations have prided themselves on a values-driven approach: program and service departments set the agenda, and fundraising follows. “We don’t chase the money,” is the common rallying cry, underlining a commitment to mission above all, as we all work to prevent mission creep.

Yet, in this moment of uncertainty - when we are combining government funding that is getting frozen, canceled, or in some cases, pulled back with anticipated economic downturns - this philosophy can become a double-edged sword. When resources are in flux, insisting on funding a static wish list can lead to frustration, missed opportunities, and unsustainable programs.

What if, instead of seeing fundraising as reactive, we regarded it as an engine for adaptive strategy? 

What if, just for now, we allowed the development department to take the lead, identifying what’s fundable, what’s resonating with donors, and what new avenues are open? 

From there, program and service teams can be challenged not to dilute their impact, but to reimagine how their essential work can be delivered within these new confines.

Enter the concept of scenario budgets.

Rather than producing a single, rigid annual plan, scenario budgets invite creativity and flexibility. They allow an organization to map out several potential futures—best case, worst case, and most likely—and to align resources accordingly.

Scenario budgeting is not simply a matter of “cutting until it fits.” It’s a dynamic process that asks teams to consider: What would we do if we secured our dream grant? How would we operate if we needed to trim 20% from our spending? What does survival look like and what does thriving mean under a range of real-world constraints?

When the development team’s intel on scenario budgets, they bring vital intelligence to the table: up-to-the-minute data on donor interest, capacity, and emerging funding trends. This information can then become the foundation for meaningful dialogue across the organization.

Historically, development and program departments have sometimes found themselves at odds. So often we see that programs dream big and development checks their ambition or vice versa. But the current environment calls for a pivot…a partnership, not a tug-of-war. After all, as I used to say when I was in sales, “you sell to those who want to buy what you are selling. In fundraising, it is vital to know what your funders are willing to fund.

In times of change, knowing what is fundable is itself a kind of program intelligence. A strong development staff person routinely track the interests of foundations, government agencies, and individuals. They know who is funding what, and why. This isn’t about selling out or mission creep; it’s about recognizing the mutual interests between your organization’s mission and your supporters’ passions.

Allowing development to take the lead on scenario budgeting leverages this expertise. It means future plans are built not just on hope, but on realistic assessments of what is possible.

And when program teams are asked to reconfigure their work within certain financial scenarios, it can be an invitation to innovate. Constraints often breed creativity. Can a program be delivered in a new format? Can partnerships help stretch limited resources? Are there ways to scale impact even with fewer dollars?

Instead of seeing the budget ceiling as a limitation, programs can see it as a challenge: how to maximize mission delivery within set parameters.

And in doing so, create a sense of resilience for your organization. If the worst-case scenario comes to pass, the organization isn't left scrambling. If new funding opens up, teams are ready to scale quickly and thoughtfully.

This approach can also foster a greater sense of shared ownership. Development and program staff are partners in problem-solving, each bringing unique insights and strengths to the table.

Implementing this shift may require some cultural change. Here are steps to guide a successful process:

1. Gather Data and Insights

Start with a clear-eyed assessment of your current funding landscape. Have development staff present recent trends, emerging donor priorities, and any promising leads. Review past fundraising performance, and be honest about what’s working—and what isn’t.

2. Map Out Scenarios

Using this data, build out several budget models:

• Optimistic Scenario: What happens if you exceed fundraising goals? What new projects or expansions become possible? How does your strategic plan align with funding if new funding is found?

• Base Scenario: What does steady funding allow for? How can you protect core activities? Acknowledge that without some fundraising growth, you will have to make some cuts simply because costs go up.

• Constrained Scenario: If major grants or income streams fall through, how will you adapt? What must be preserved at all costs, and what can be scaled back or paused? How can you rethink what you want to do to fit into this harsher reality.

3. Engage Program Teams

With these scenarios in hand, challenge program and service leads to think creatively. If given a set amount, how would they redesign their offerings to maximize impact? What partnerships, efficiencies, or new delivery methods could stretch dollars further?

4. Foster Cross-Departmental Dialogue

Hold regular meetings that bring development, program, and finance teams together. Encourage open communication, honesty, and a willingness to think differently. Use these meetings to explore trade-offs, share insights, and refine scenario plans. Encourage your program teams to get involved in fundraising and grant writing.

5. Document and Communicate Your Plans

Once scenarios are developed, document them clearly. Make sure all teams understand the implications of each scenario—and have a plan for monitoring which path the organization is on as the year unfolds.

6. Remain Agile and Ready to Pivot

Scenario budgets are not set in stone. As new information emerges, be prepared to revisit assumptions and shift course. This is the heart of adaptive strategy.

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Not everyone will be comfortable with this approach. Some program staff may fear that “chasing the money” means sacrificing mission. Development staff may be wary of the responsibility that comes with leading budget discussions.

Address these concerns head-on. Make it clear that the ultimate goal is not to water down the mission, but to sustain and even expand impact by aligning aspirations with realities. Emphasize that this is a collaborative process, rooted in respect for every team’s expertise.

This is not the time for rigid thinking or business as usual. By pausing to take stock, and then building scenario budgets led by development, organizations can respond to uncertainty with clarity, creativity, and confidence. It is a moment to rethink old divides, to invite new conversations, and to center the mission not only in words but in sustainable action.

In the end, scenario budgeting is not just a financial exercise—it’s a strategic one. It’s a way to say yes to the possible, to plan for the probable, and to weather the storms ahead with resilience and grace. As you gather your teams and begin this work, remember what you already know: innovation thrives within boundaries, opportunities exist in hard times and the most enduring organizations are those that adapt with both courage and care.